在2020年眾多讓美國(guó)人夜不能寐的危機(jī)當(dāng)中,新冠疫情引發(fā)的經(jīng)濟(jì)“K形復(fù)蘇”理論顯得格外引人注目。
在這個(gè)得到越來越多證據(jù)佐證的假設(shè)中,一年的封鎖、隔離和不確定性讓美國(guó)居家辦公的管理層與靠薪資度日的一線員工之間的貧富差距越拉越大,而且這兩個(gè)組別之間的財(cái)富狀況就像K的上下兩筆一樣,處于背道而馳的狀態(tài)。
與此同時(shí),股市亦經(jīng)歷了其自身的K形復(fù)蘇,只不過其結(jié)果并不盡如人意。
由于今年諸多事件的發(fā)生,讓我們比以往更加依賴于科技,例如從電子商務(wù)到電話會(huì)議, FAAMG(Facebook、蘋果、亞馬遜、微軟和谷歌)五大科技巨頭股票年初至今的回報(bào)率達(dá)到了52.5%,而標(biāo)普500其他495只股票的回報(bào)率僅有6.3%。這五家公司的總市值目前達(dá)到了7.2萬億美元。
如果你將所有的資產(chǎn)組合都放到了一個(gè)典型的“市值加權(quán)型”標(biāo)普500交易所交易基金中,你資產(chǎn)的23%都將用于購(gòu)買這五家公司的股票。
在感恩節(jié)到來前的數(shù)周里,有兩款新冠疫苗傳來了好消息,后續(xù)可能還會(huì)涌現(xiàn)出更多的疫苗。
盡管面臨著非常困難的寒冬,但很有可能這些救命股票將有助于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)在2021年擺脫疫情影響,扭轉(zhuǎn)局面。而且如果幸運(yùn)的話,它還將終結(jié)上述的兩種K型復(fù)蘇,實(shí)現(xiàn)足夠強(qiáng)勁且范圍更加廣泛的復(fù)蘇。
就股票而言,這一線希望也讓專業(yè)人士開始重新思考從哪里下手才能獲得最大回報(bào)。
在受疫情沖擊最嚴(yán)重的行業(yè)中,有人認(rèn)為,隨著公司營(yíng)收的恢復(fù),其股價(jià)應(yīng)該有更多的上行空間。Causeway Capital首席執(zhí)行官薩拉?凱特拉說,在經(jīng)濟(jì)回歸常態(tài)之后,“一飛沖天的將是原材料、消費(fèi)必需品、金融和工業(yè)股?!?/p>
很多經(jīng)理認(rèn)為那些在疫情爆發(fā)后下跌速度超過美股的非美國(guó)股票,也有望大幅上漲。Nuveen全球股票負(fù)責(zé)人薩伊拉?馬利克稱,不管出現(xiàn)什么情況,未來并非是FAAMG一枝獨(dú)秀的局面,“我并不認(rèn)為我們?cè)?021年末會(huì)說,‘這五家增長(zhǎng)型股票才是你應(yīng)該擁有的一切。’”
在這些領(lǐng)域下注并不意味著就得放棄科技股。科技在推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方面的核心作用是不容否認(rèn)的。
盡管如此,分析師預(yù)計(jì),科技公司在2021年的盈利增速要低于標(biāo)普500整體的盈利增速。另一個(gè)跡象表明,隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)回歸健康,其他行業(yè)的股票亦有可能迎來一個(gè)加長(zhǎng)版的牛市。
有鑒于此,我們挑選了六個(gè)門類的股票,它們有望在全球重建之際提供豐厚的回報(bào)。
能源與基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施
隨著美國(guó)組建新的經(jīng)濟(jì)支柱,這類股票將受益。
美國(guó)的新一屆政府管理者通常會(huì)給投資者一個(gè)加大基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資力度的希望,而且這類預(yù)算有望得到兩黨的同時(shí)支持。
總統(tǒng)繼任者喬?拜登在競(jìng)選時(shí)祭出了兩個(gè)尤為及時(shí)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施主題:一個(gè)是呼吁對(duì)“可持續(xù)發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施”進(jìn)行2萬億美元投資的氣候計(jì)劃,以及一個(gè)投資農(nóng)村寬帶建設(shè)的200億美元提案。
然而,即便這筆資金未能在陷入僵局的國(guó)會(huì)獲得通過,但我們?nèi)杂欣碛扇パ鹤⒛切┐蛟焐鲜鑫磥斫?jīng)濟(jì)支柱的企業(yè)。
很多投資者都將目光投向了可再生的電力資源。
盡管風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能僅占當(dāng)今全球發(fā)電量的約7%,國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)這個(gè)數(shù)字到2040年將升至40%。幫助管理安本標(biāo)準(zhǔn)全球基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施收益基金(Aberdeen Standard Global Infrastructure Income Fund)的資深資產(chǎn)組合經(jīng)理喬什?杜伊茨說:“可再生能源領(lǐng)域?qū)⒂瓉黹L(zhǎng)達(dá)數(shù)十年的增長(zhǎng)機(jī)遇,我們當(dāng)前處于最初期的階段?!彼枪檬聵I(yè)公司的粉絲,它們因其高派息額而被稱之為“收益公司”,其中包括英國(guó)的Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure(派息額5%)以及在美國(guó)和海外經(jīng)營(yíng)太陽(yáng)能電板安裝以及風(fēng)力渦輪機(jī)的Clearway Energy(派息額4.6%)。
杜伊茨還十分鐘愛美國(guó)最大的可再生能源設(shè)施公司 NextEra Energy。該公司計(jì)劃于明年在電池存儲(chǔ)的新前沿領(lǐng)域投資10億美元。這項(xiàng)創(chuàng)新是可再生能源成為主流的關(guān)鍵,因?yàn)樗軌蜃屓藗冊(cè)谔?yáng)落山或無風(fēng)情況下繼續(xù)使用能源。
五大巨頭的印跡……
Facebook、蘋果、亞馬遜、微軟和谷歌(所謂的FAAMG)如今占到了標(biāo)普500近四分之一的市值。
在疫情之前,美國(guó)移動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)消費(fèi)的年增幅已經(jīng)超過了30%。由于工作和教育均開始依賴于電話會(huì)議這種形式,因此我們?cè)谖磥韺⒂瓉砀嗟臄?shù)據(jù)消費(fèi)。這意味著電信公司有必要在未來繼續(xù)完善其5G網(wǎng)絡(luò),其中一個(gè)辦法就是在信號(hào)塔上安置更多的天線。
ClearBridge Investments資深資產(chǎn)組合經(jīng)理尼克?朗格里解釋說:“其背后的原理在于,要求的帶寬越高,離信號(hào)塔的距離就得越近?!边@一點(diǎn)對(duì)于像Crown Castle和American Tower這樣的房地產(chǎn)投資信托來說是個(gè)好消息。朗格里預(yù)測(cè)這類企業(yè)的營(yíng)收將呈現(xiàn)出長(zhǎng)達(dá)十年的高值個(gè)位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)。
杜伊茨推薦了西班牙的Cellnex,隨著越來越多的歐洲移動(dòng)通訊公司將其信號(hào)塔業(yè)務(wù)交給專業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)商,這家公司亦通過收購(gòu)不斷發(fā)展壯大。
推薦股票
Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure (AY)
Clearway Energy (CWEN)
NextEra Energy (NEE)
Crown Castle (CCI)
American Tower (AMT)
Cellnex (CLNX)
醫(yī)療股
有待于新冠疫情減少對(duì)醫(yī)療系統(tǒng)的依賴。
新冠疫情是一場(chǎng)醫(yī)療危機(jī),對(duì)一些醫(yī)療公司造成了嚴(yán)重的沖擊。
作為設(shè)備制造商和醫(yī)院的一個(gè)重要盈利點(diǎn),擇期手術(shù)需求出現(xiàn)了放緩或驟停,而上了歲數(shù)的人尤其會(huì)推遲各類醫(yī)療服務(wù),以避免感染新冠病毒。但盡管新冠疫情相關(guān)的挑戰(zhàn)依然存在,最近積極的疫苗進(jìn)展也促使一些投資者加倍押注那些能夠在回歸常態(tài)后受益的公司。
詹森投資管理公司(Jensen Investment Management)董事總經(jīng)理兼資產(chǎn)組合經(jīng)理艾瑞克?斯科恩斯騰推薦Stryker,這是一家整形外科移植物、人工關(guān)節(jié)以及老齡人口所需其他科技產(chǎn)品的頂級(jí)制造商。
Stryker擁有斯科恩斯騰所稱的“先驅(qū)優(yōu)勢(shì)”,也就是其用于髖關(guān)節(jié)和膝關(guān)節(jié)置換的機(jī)器人輔助手術(shù)平臺(tái)。Stryker幾乎半數(shù)的業(yè)務(wù)都可被劃分為“擇期手術(shù)”業(yè)務(wù),但由于這些手術(shù)不斷涌現(xiàn),分析師預(yù)測(cè),該公司2021年?duì)I收增幅將超過13%。其股票當(dāng)前的估值略低于行業(yè)平均水平。
在興旺之年發(fā)展壯大
隨著疫情使人們加深了對(duì)數(shù)字工作、電商和家庭娛樂的依賴度,F(xiàn)AAMG的股價(jià)一飛沖天。
擇期手術(shù)的全面回歸還將使Teleflex受益,其產(chǎn)品包括眾多在血管、尿路手術(shù)以及膀胱疾病治療過程中使用的器具。
管理Parnassus Mid Cap Fund基金的羅瑞?凱斯認(rèn)為,正在邁入老年階段的嬰兒潮一代對(duì)Teleflex設(shè)備有著長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)需求。公司股票并不便宜,其遠(yuǎn)期市盈率接近30倍,但分析師認(rèn)為Teleflex 2021年的營(yíng)收增幅將達(dá)到13.5%。
險(xiǎn)企巨頭聯(lián)合健康集團(tuán)順利地挺過了疫情的沖擊。
在疫情初期,其利潤(rùn)因擇期手術(shù)的下降甚至有所上升,使得公司能夠向客戶提供一些返利。然而,Nuveen的塞拉?馬利克將選舉后風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的缺失稱之為險(xiǎn)企“最大的利好因素”:有鑒于下一屆國(guó)會(huì)有望出現(xiàn)勢(shì)均力敵的顯著分歧,“全民醫(yī)?!庇?jì)劃很難實(shí)現(xiàn)。
馬利克預(yù)計(jì)聯(lián)合健康將以最快的速度在5年內(nèi)擴(kuò)大其在“醫(yī)保優(yōu)勢(shì)計(jì)劃”領(lǐng)域的印記,其Optum業(yè)務(wù)也將攬獲更多的會(huì)員(其中包括醫(yī)保儲(chǔ)蓄賬戶和支付處理)。公司股票的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為22倍,與標(biāo)普500的平均水平相當(dāng),而且馬利克認(rèn)為,隨著聯(lián)合健康的業(yè)務(wù)模式回歸常態(tài),以及其股價(jià)的攀升,公司可能會(huì)消除這一鴻溝。
推薦股票
Stryker (SYK)
Teleflex (TFX)
聯(lián)合健康集團(tuán)(UNH)
消費(fèi)股
封鎖過后,一些零售商和直播節(jié)目將東山再起。
疫情迫使全國(guó)店面關(guān)閉之后,零售向電商轉(zhuǎn)變的漫長(zhǎng)過程得以加速推進(jìn)。然而,如果疫苗到來驅(qū)使更多的人回到實(shí)體店,那些主營(yíng)實(shí)體店的公司可能會(huì)為投資者帶來不俗的回報(bào)。對(duì)于折扣零售商來說更是如此,因?yàn)樗麄円恢蹦軌蛴谩皩殹斌w驗(yàn)以及在動(dòng)蕩經(jīng)濟(jì)中備受歡迎的低價(jià)策略來取悅客戶。
Parnassus的凱斯便是Burlington Stores的一名粉絲,這是美國(guó)僅次于Ross Stores和TJX的第三大折扣零售商。Burlington眾多店面位于獨(dú)立的大樓而不是大型商場(chǎng)中,比實(shí)體店零售商受疫情沖擊要小,因此可以較早重新開業(yè)。新首席執(zhí)行官邁克·歐·薩利文于2019年從Ross來到了公司,正在投資用于供應(yīng)鏈管理的科技,以及有助于Burlington繼續(xù)改善其運(yùn)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)率的分析工具。
在當(dāng)前這個(gè)時(shí)代,人們更喜歡外出而不是待在家中,這可能對(duì)于服飾巨頭VF來說是一個(gè)好消息,該公司旗下資產(chǎn)組合公司包括戶外品牌Vans,北臉和添柏嵐。
凱斯稱,投資電商獲得了回報(bào),公司銷售額在最近幾個(gè)季度有所增長(zhǎng),而且公司在近些年剝離了像諾帝卡和Reef這樣的老品牌以精簡(jiǎn)其產(chǎn)品線。VF最近以21億美元收購(gòu)備受青少年追捧的大熱街頭服飾品牌Supreme,凱斯認(rèn)為該品牌有望成為公司增長(zhǎng)的一個(gè)潛在加速引擎。
彌補(bǔ)錯(cuò)過的時(shí)間
分析師預(yù)計(jì),隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)快速增長(zhǎng),2021年幾乎各行各業(yè)普遍都會(huì)出現(xiàn)利潤(rùn)的大幅增長(zhǎng)。
高盛資產(chǎn)管理選股業(yè)務(wù)聯(lián)席負(fù)責(zé)人凱蒂·科克認(rèn)為,在更加年輕的消費(fèi)群體中,像音樂會(huì)和旅游這類體驗(yàn)要比零售更為重要,而且一旦疫苗出現(xiàn)之后,專業(yè)從事此類體驗(yàn)的企業(yè)可能會(huì)因?yàn)槊驮龅男枨蠖畈l(fā)展。
這對(duì)于Live Nation來說可謂是天大的好消息,該公司是音樂會(huì)和相關(guān)活動(dòng)的巨頭企業(yè),旗下子公司包括Ticketmaster等。Live Nation的營(yíng)收在過去12個(gè)月中下滑了近60%,而且由于現(xiàn)場(chǎng)活動(dòng)不知何時(shí)才能全面恢復(fù),華爾街預(yù)計(jì)公司的營(yíng)收在2021年依然會(huì)在低位徘徊。然而科克指出,公司所擁有的“資產(chǎn)負(fù)債實(shí)力能夠讓公司度過繼續(xù)拖延的經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)停?!睂?duì)于因疫情而關(guān)閉的活動(dòng)中,超過80%的Live Nation的客戶選擇持有其門票,而不是退款。對(duì)于科克來說,“這個(gè)有力的數(shù)據(jù)點(diǎn)證明,人們對(duì)這類活動(dòng)異常喜愛?!?/p>
推薦股票
Burlington Stores (BURL)
VF Corp. (VFC)
Live Nation (LYV)
銀行股
疫情趕走了投資者,但 “四大”中的很多銀行依然斬獲了穩(wěn)定的利潤(rùn)。
就經(jīng)濟(jì)健康度的形象代言人而言,沒有哪一組企業(yè)能夠比四大金融巨頭——摩根大通、美國(guó)銀行、富國(guó)銀行和花旗集團(tuán)——更適合這一角色。到目前為止,市場(chǎng)回歸基本上都與四大無緣。自1月1日以來,盡管標(biāo)普增長(zhǎng)了10%,但四大平均下跌了22%。然而,這一現(xiàn)象也讓其股票變得異常便宜,一旦其利潤(rùn)反彈,投資者可能會(huì)收獲巨大的回報(bào)。
這里存在多個(gè)對(duì)銀行有利的因素。不斷改善的經(jīng)濟(jì)將逐漸抬升利率,推高“凈利息收益”,也就是銀行家庭和信用貸款利息與存款利息之差。四大在接管受疫情沖擊的貸款之后依然公布了穩(wěn)定的營(yíng)收。這一點(diǎn)部分歸功于一項(xiàng)新會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則的實(shí)施,從1月到4月,四大共計(jì)為不良信貸認(rèn)列了620億美元的撥備,覆蓋了其預(yù)計(jì)的新冠疫情引發(fā)的所有損失。
專業(yè)研究公司Portales Partners負(fù)責(zé)人查爾斯·皮博迪稱,好消息在于:“除非美國(guó)再次經(jīng)歷深度蕭條,虧損應(yīng)該維持在一個(gè)大幅降低的水平?!?/p>
資金不足
銀行股已經(jīng)落后于大盤,但隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)向常態(tài)邁進(jìn),銀行收益將出現(xiàn)大幅躍升。
美國(guó)銀行從上行經(jīng)濟(jì)中獲益的可能性尤為突出,因?yàn)楣靖嗟貙W⒂谙M(fèi)者而不是投行或貿(mào)易。
在第三季度,不斷下滑的利率讓美國(guó)銀行的凈利息收益減少了21億美元,降幅達(dá)到了17%,但該銀行依然報(bào)出了49億美元的利潤(rùn)。該行認(rèn)為,10年期國(guó)債收益率每上漲一個(gè)百分點(diǎn),其稅前收益就會(huì)增長(zhǎng)33.4億美元。
皮博迪認(rèn)為,美國(guó)銀行側(cè)重消費(fèi)者的業(yè)務(wù)組合將成為經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)的超級(jí)受益者。他說,受信用卡和抵押貸款需求的刺激,“此次反彈更多的是在于消費(fèi)而不是華爾街金融業(yè)”。美國(guó)銀行相對(duì)于2019年利潤(rùn)的市盈率僅有8,其股價(jià)比摩根大通還便宜。
富國(guó)銀行倒是有一定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。銀行一直受累于與監(jiān)管方打擊其不道德銷售行為有關(guān)的成本,而且美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)對(duì)其業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)實(shí)施了嚴(yán)格的限令。富國(guó)銀行的股價(jià)從其2018年的峰值水平下跌了60%。
然而,首席執(zhí)行官查爾斯?斯卡夫在削減成本上一直頗有建樹。與美國(guó)銀行一樣,富國(guó)銀行主營(yíng)消費(fèi)業(yè)務(wù),去年發(fā)放的抵押貸款數(shù)額在四大中居于首位。有鑒于于此,它有望成為利率上升期間的大贏家。
推薦股票
美國(guó)銀行 (BAC)
富國(guó)銀行 (WFC)
航空與航天
憂心忡忡的乘客與限飛令也無法阻止其股價(jià)的上漲。
11月振奮人心的疫苗數(shù)據(jù)讓航空公司股價(jià)從低點(diǎn)一飛沖天,然而投資者擔(dān)心其股價(jià)在近期內(nèi)難以企及新高。盡管注射了疫苗的商務(wù)差旅人士會(huì)更放心地搭乘航班,但只要能夠通過Zoom溝通,他們依然不大愿意乘飛機(jī)參加工作會(huì)議。同時(shí),飛機(jī)在沒有滿客的情況下執(zhí)飛也沒有利潤(rùn)可言。
那些希望從航空旅行恢復(fù)中大賺一筆的投資者,轉(zhuǎn)而進(jìn)一步將目光投向了供應(yīng)鏈,也就是那些制造和維修飛機(jī)零部件的公司。
Schroders的投資策略師比爾?卡拉漢說:“航空公司省錢的方式有很多種,但它們無法在飛機(jī)維修方面省錢?!敝灰w機(jī)起飛之后,零部件就會(huì)出現(xiàn)磨損,維修要比購(gòu)買全新的飛機(jī)便宜的多,而且航空公司現(xiàn)在也沒錢購(gòu)買新飛機(jī)。
卡拉漢在談到像克利夫蘭TransDigm以及康涅狄格州斯坦福德的Hexcel這類制造商時(shí)說,“他們對(duì)波音的痛苦可謂是感同身受?!盩ransDigm生產(chǎn)從駕駛艙到廁所等各類飛機(jī)部件,而Hexcel則專業(yè)生產(chǎn)飛機(jī)碳纖維。盡管這兩家公司股價(jià)最近均出現(xiàn)了飆升,但依然遠(yuǎn)低于其疫情前的水平。Hexcel的股價(jià)較其2019年的峰值下跌了近40%。
持有規(guī)律
隨著疫情病例的再次激增,美國(guó)航空旅行在經(jīng)歷了夏秋兩季的部分恢復(fù)之后趨于平穩(wěn)。
卡拉漢建議,對(duì)于那些愿意盡早押注航空公司股票的投資者來說,不妨考慮那些專注于美國(guó)市場(chǎng)的企業(yè):“國(guó)際差旅受到影響的期限將長(zhǎng)于本土差旅”。相對(duì)于其他美國(guó)大型航空公司,專注于美國(guó)本土的西南航空在疫情期間較為順利地通過了考驗(yàn),而且利用了疫情導(dǎo)致的差旅蕭條,于2021年中期之前在其航線中新增了10個(gè)機(jī)場(chǎng)。
Commonwealth Financial Network資產(chǎn)組合管理負(fù)責(zé)人皮特?埃塞爾認(rèn)為,從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來看,捷藍(lán)航空在卓越客戶體驗(yàn)方面的聲譽(yù)將為其提供相對(duì)于傳統(tǒng)航空公司的優(yōu)勢(shì),而且會(huì)在疫情之后持續(xù)很長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間。
不過買家需要注意的是:即便最有實(shí)力的航空公司在明年也將面臨眾多的湍流。
推薦股票
TransDigm (TDG)
Hexcel (HXL)
西南航空 (LUV)
捷藍(lán)航空 (JBLU)
國(guó)際股票
將目光投向海外的投資者尋找的是實(shí)力公司的特價(jià)股。
在新冠危機(jī)期間,美國(guó)公司股價(jià)高于國(guó)際公司股價(jià),這得益于美國(guó)本土優(yōu)勢(shì):這些公司得到了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)刺激計(jì)劃的支撐,同時(shí)也受益于美元作為全球儲(chǔ)備貨幣的地位。
高盛的科克說,當(dāng)疫情最終消散時(shí),“我認(rèn)為美股在市場(chǎng)上一枝獨(dú)秀的出色表現(xiàn)將不復(fù)往昔”,因?yàn)橥顿Y者對(duì)非美國(guó)企業(yè)的信心將得到提升。另一個(gè)令投資者對(duì)亞洲和歐洲股票信心大增的因素在于:在貿(mào)易問題上,拜登政府將不再像其前任那樣肆意為之。
Nuveen的馬利克認(rèn)為有一只股票將持續(xù)上揚(yáng),它就是全球最大的代工芯片生產(chǎn)商臺(tái)積電。該公司制作的芯片對(duì)于全球5G網(wǎng)絡(luò)的構(gòu)建至關(guān)重要。
馬利克稱,半導(dǎo)體巨頭英特爾最近遭遇的生產(chǎn)問題“必然將間接造福臺(tái)積電,如果不是直接的話”,因?yàn)橛⑻貭栍锌赡軐⒏嘧杂行酒瑯I(yè)務(wù)外包給臺(tái)積電。然而,該公司的股價(jià)依然停留在合理區(qū)間,其遠(yuǎn)期市盈率約為23倍。
詹森投資管理公司的斯科恩斯騰看好跨國(guó)美容和食品巨頭聯(lián)合利華,該公司當(dāng)前正在合并其倫敦總部的業(yè)務(wù)。聯(lián)合利華旗下品牌包括多芬香皂、立頓茶葉、Breyers冰淇淋和Vaseline,遠(yuǎn)銷190個(gè)國(guó)家,其中國(guó)和北美業(yè)務(wù)最近成為了亮點(diǎn)。由于疫情期間消費(fèi)者的大量采購(gòu),聯(lián)合利華與其他消費(fèi)品巨頭一樣過得十分坦然。如果消費(fèi)者成為其忠實(shí)客戶,其股價(jià)還有上升空間,其遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為溫和的21倍,而美國(guó)消費(fèi)必需品行業(yè)平均市盈率水平接近26倍。
聯(lián)合利華的一些產(chǎn)品可能會(huì)通過加拿大國(guó)家鐵路送到客戶手中,這是一條貨運(yùn)專用鐵路,連接著美國(guó)和加拿大,并縱貫亞特蘭大、太平洋和墨西哥灣的主要港口。
加拿大國(guó)家鐵路公司運(yùn)輸?shù)呢浳锓N類十分廣泛,包括原油、金屬、礦物和木材產(chǎn)品,而且其消費(fèi)品運(yùn)輸業(yè)務(wù)隨著新冠疫情危機(jī)的好轉(zhuǎn)出現(xiàn)了尤為明顯的恢復(fù)。加拿大國(guó)家鐵路一直在疫情期間致力于改善其鐵路網(wǎng)絡(luò)。
斯科恩斯騰稱,這些投資的效率以及相對(duì)較低的燃油價(jià)格,將讓加拿大國(guó)家鐵路在其他經(jīng)濟(jì)型列車開始再次提速時(shí)擁有更好的表現(xiàn)。
股票推薦
臺(tái)積電(TSM)
聯(lián)合利華(UL)
加拿大國(guó)家鐵路(CNI)
《財(cái)富》雜志的選股之道:謹(jǐn)慎行事的時(shí)代
盡管沒有人能夠預(yù)測(cè)2020年的混亂局面,但《財(cái)富》雜志作者雷?瑪莎耶吉和安妮?斯瑞德斯確實(shí)曾預(yù)測(cè)2020年將是一個(gè)充滿了增長(zhǎng)不確定性和政治沖突的年份。他們?cè)凇包S燈資產(chǎn)組合中”選擇的27只股票和交易所基金看重的是謹(jǐn)慎、有韌勁的公司,這些股票和基金在接下來一年中的表現(xiàn)超過了標(biāo)普500,其涵蓋派息的中值回報(bào)率達(dá)到了20.6%,而大盤為19.5%。以下是其中的一些亮點(diǎn)。
電氣化
不管你對(duì)埃隆?馬斯克有什么看法,不可否認(rèn),特斯拉在2020年可謂是炙手可熱。這家電動(dòng)汽車制造商解決了其產(chǎn)能問題,為了盈利而努力打拼,并在標(biāo)普500中占據(jù)了一席之地。自我們選擇之后,股票回報(bào)率達(dá)到了505%,也讓其成為了到目前為止表現(xiàn)最好的股票。相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的另一位勝者則屬于日本電動(dòng)汽車電機(jī)制造商N(yùn)idec(增長(zhǎng)了51%)。
安全購(gòu)物
疫情給零售商帶來了巨大的壓力,但也為那些及時(shí)調(diào)整的零售商帶來了回報(bào)。塔吉特增添了人手,保證了開業(yè)店面的干凈整潔,并借此贏得了本屬于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的市場(chǎng)份額。與此同時(shí),居家辦公潮則提振了家得寶的業(yè)績(jī)。疫情期間,人們對(duì)居住房屋進(jìn)行翻修改造,并購(gòu)買了更昂貴家居用品,以充分打造居家辦公好環(huán)境。
用芯片換錢
我們所選的科技股包括Alphabet和微軟,這兩家在過去幾年一直都順風(fēng)順?biāo)?。然而,我們表現(xiàn)最優(yōu)異的科技股則來自于一家鮮為人知的芯片企業(yè)。Synopsys(其軟件得到了半導(dǎo)體設(shè)計(jì)專家的采用)的股票和荷蘭芯片元件制造商阿斯麥的回報(bào)率分別達(dá)到了63%和61%。隨著全球數(shù)字硬件需求的增長(zhǎng),每一只股票(連同其行業(yè))都出現(xiàn)了大幅上揚(yáng)。
無法全勝
我們的資產(chǎn)組合涵蓋五只“孤注一擲”的股票,也就是那些有著較高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的公司。特斯拉和Nidec大獲成功。由于奢侈品牌受到了新冠疫情的毀滅性打擊,英國(guó)零售商博柏利(下滑19%)失敗了。過去丑聞的敗露給富國(guó)銀行造成巨大沖擊(下滑52%),不過我們的團(tuán)隊(duì)今年認(rèn)為,這家備受摧殘的銀行即將迎來更好的發(fā)展時(shí)期。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
本文的另一個(gè)版本刊登于《財(cái)富》雜志2020年12月/2021年1月刊,標(biāo)題為《2021年股票選擇:投資宏大的重建事業(yè)》
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
在2020年眾多讓美國(guó)人夜不能寐的危機(jī)當(dāng)中,新冠疫情引發(fā)的經(jīng)濟(jì)“K形復(fù)蘇”理論顯得格外引人注目。
在這個(gè)得到越來越多證據(jù)佐證的假設(shè)中,一年的封鎖、隔離和不確定性讓美國(guó)居家辦公的管理層與靠薪資度日的一線員工之間的貧富差距越拉越大,而且這兩個(gè)組別之間的財(cái)富狀況就像K的上下兩筆一樣,處于背道而馳的狀態(tài)。
與此同時(shí),股市亦經(jīng)歷了其自身的K形復(fù)蘇,只不過其結(jié)果并不盡如人意。
由于今年諸多事件的發(fā)生,讓我們比以往更加依賴于科技,例如從電子商務(wù)到電話會(huì)議, FAAMG(Facebook、蘋果、亞馬遜、微軟和谷歌)五大科技巨頭股票年初至今的回報(bào)率達(dá)到了52.5%,而標(biāo)普500其他495只股票的回報(bào)率僅有6.3%。這五家公司的總市值目前達(dá)到了7.2萬億美元。
如果你將所有的資產(chǎn)組合都放到了一個(gè)典型的“市值加權(quán)型”標(biāo)普500交易所交易基金中,你資產(chǎn)的23%都將用于購(gòu)買這五家公司的股票。
在感恩節(jié)到來前的數(shù)周里,有兩款新冠疫苗傳來了好消息,后續(xù)可能還會(huì)涌現(xiàn)出更多的疫苗。
盡管面臨著非常困難的寒冬,但很有可能這些救命股票將有助于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)在2021年擺脫疫情影響,扭轉(zhuǎn)局面。而且如果幸運(yùn)的話,它還將終結(jié)上述的兩種K型復(fù)蘇,實(shí)現(xiàn)足夠強(qiáng)勁且范圍更加廣泛的復(fù)蘇。
就股票而言,這一線希望也讓專業(yè)人士開始重新思考從哪里下手才能獲得最大回報(bào)。
在受疫情沖擊最嚴(yán)重的行業(yè)中,有人認(rèn)為,隨著公司營(yíng)收的恢復(fù),其股價(jià)應(yīng)該有更多的上行空間。Causeway Capital首席執(zhí)行官薩拉?凱特拉說,在經(jīng)濟(jì)回歸常態(tài)之后,“一飛沖天的將是原材料、消費(fèi)必需品、金融和工業(yè)股?!?/p>
很多經(jīng)理認(rèn)為那些在疫情爆發(fā)后下跌速度超過美股的非美國(guó)股票,也有望大幅上漲。Nuveen全球股票負(fù)責(zé)人薩伊拉?馬利克稱,不管出現(xiàn)什么情況,未來并非是FAAMG一枝獨(dú)秀的局面,“我并不認(rèn)為我們?cè)?021年末會(huì)說,‘這五家增長(zhǎng)型股票才是你應(yīng)該擁有的一切?!?/p>
在這些領(lǐng)域下注并不意味著就得放棄科技股??萍荚谕苿?dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方面的核心作用是不容否認(rèn)的。
盡管如此,分析師預(yù)計(jì),科技公司在2021年的盈利增速要低于標(biāo)普500整體的盈利增速。另一個(gè)跡象表明,隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)回歸健康,其他行業(yè)的股票亦有可能迎來一個(gè)加長(zhǎng)版的牛市。
有鑒于此,我們挑選了六個(gè)門類的股票,它們有望在全球重建之際提供豐厚的回報(bào)。
能源與基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施
隨著美國(guó)組建新的經(jīng)濟(jì)支柱,這類股票將受益。
美國(guó)的新一屆政府管理者通常會(huì)給投資者一個(gè)加大基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資力度的希望,而且這類預(yù)算有望得到兩黨的同時(shí)支持。
總統(tǒng)繼任者喬?拜登在競(jìng)選時(shí)祭出了兩個(gè)尤為及時(shí)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施主題:一個(gè)是呼吁對(duì)“可持續(xù)發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施”進(jìn)行2萬億美元投資的氣候計(jì)劃,以及一個(gè)投資農(nóng)村寬帶建設(shè)的200億美元提案。
然而,即便這筆資金未能在陷入僵局的國(guó)會(huì)獲得通過,但我們?nèi)杂欣碛扇パ鹤⒛切┐蛟焐鲜鑫磥斫?jīng)濟(jì)支柱的企業(yè)。
很多投資者都將目光投向了可再生的電力資源。
盡管風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能僅占當(dāng)今全球發(fā)電量的約7%,國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)這個(gè)數(shù)字到2040年將升至40%。幫助管理安本標(biāo)準(zhǔn)全球基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施收益基金(Aberdeen Standard Global Infrastructure Income Fund)的資深資產(chǎn)組合經(jīng)理喬什?杜伊茨說:“可再生能源領(lǐng)域?qū)⒂瓉黹L(zhǎng)達(dá)數(shù)十年的增長(zhǎng)機(jī)遇,我們當(dāng)前處于最初期的階段?!彼枪檬聵I(yè)公司的粉絲,它們因其高派息額而被稱之為“收益公司”,其中包括英國(guó)的Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure(派息額5%)以及在美國(guó)和海外經(jīng)營(yíng)太陽(yáng)能電板安裝以及風(fēng)力渦輪機(jī)的Clearway Energy(派息額4.6%)。
杜伊茨還十分鐘愛美國(guó)最大的可再生能源設(shè)施公司 NextEra Energy。該公司計(jì)劃于明年在電池存儲(chǔ)的新前沿領(lǐng)域投資10億美元。這項(xiàng)創(chuàng)新是可再生能源成為主流的關(guān)鍵,因?yàn)樗軌蜃屓藗冊(cè)谔?yáng)落山或無風(fēng)情況下繼續(xù)使用能源。
五大巨頭的印跡……
Facebook、蘋果、亞馬遜、微軟和谷歌(所謂的FAAMG)如今占到了標(biāo)普500近四分之一的市值。
在疫情之前,美國(guó)移動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)消費(fèi)的年增幅已經(jīng)超過了30%。由于工作和教育均開始依賴于電話會(huì)議這種形式,因此我們?cè)谖磥韺⒂瓉砀嗟臄?shù)據(jù)消費(fèi)。這意味著電信公司有必要在未來繼續(xù)完善其5G網(wǎng)絡(luò),其中一個(gè)辦法就是在信號(hào)塔上安置更多的天線。
ClearBridge Investments資深資產(chǎn)組合經(jīng)理尼克?朗格里解釋說:“其背后的原理在于,要求的帶寬越高,離信號(hào)塔的距離就得越近?!边@一點(diǎn)對(duì)于像Crown Castle和American Tower這樣的房地產(chǎn)投資信托來說是個(gè)好消息。朗格里預(yù)測(cè)這類企業(yè)的營(yíng)收將呈現(xiàn)出長(zhǎng)達(dá)十年的高值個(gè)位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)。
杜伊茨推薦了西班牙的Cellnex,隨著越來越多的歐洲移動(dòng)通訊公司將其信號(hào)塔業(yè)務(wù)交給專業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)商,這家公司亦通過收購(gòu)不斷發(fā)展壯大。
推薦股票
Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure (AY)
Clearway Energy (CWEN)
NextEra Energy (NEE)
Crown Castle (CCI)
American Tower (AMT)
Cellnex (CLNX)
醫(yī)療股
有待于新冠疫情減少對(duì)醫(yī)療系統(tǒng)的依賴。
新冠疫情是一場(chǎng)醫(yī)療危機(jī),對(duì)一些醫(yī)療公司造成了嚴(yán)重的沖擊。
作為設(shè)備制造商和醫(yī)院的一個(gè)重要盈利點(diǎn),擇期手術(shù)需求出現(xiàn)了放緩或驟停,而上了歲數(shù)的人尤其會(huì)推遲各類醫(yī)療服務(wù),以避免感染新冠病毒。但盡管新冠疫情相關(guān)的挑戰(zhàn)依然存在,最近積極的疫苗進(jìn)展也促使一些投資者加倍押注那些能夠在回歸常態(tài)后受益的公司。
詹森投資管理公司(Jensen Investment Management)董事總經(jīng)理兼資產(chǎn)組合經(jīng)理艾瑞克?斯科恩斯騰推薦Stryker,這是一家整形外科移植物、人工關(guān)節(jié)以及老齡人口所需其他科技產(chǎn)品的頂級(jí)制造商。
Stryker擁有斯科恩斯騰所稱的“先驅(qū)優(yōu)勢(shì)”,也就是其用于髖關(guān)節(jié)和膝關(guān)節(jié)置換的機(jī)器人輔助手術(shù)平臺(tái)。Stryker幾乎半數(shù)的業(yè)務(wù)都可被劃分為“擇期手術(shù)”業(yè)務(wù),但由于這些手術(shù)不斷涌現(xiàn),分析師預(yù)測(cè),該公司2021年?duì)I收增幅將超過13%。其股票當(dāng)前的估值略低于行業(yè)平均水平。
在興旺之年發(fā)展壯大
隨著疫情使人們加深了對(duì)數(shù)字工作、電商和家庭娛樂的依賴度,F(xiàn)AAMG的股價(jià)一飛沖天。
擇期手術(shù)的全面回歸還將使Teleflex受益,其產(chǎn)品包括眾多在血管、尿路手術(shù)以及膀胱疾病治療過程中使用的器具。
管理Parnassus Mid Cap Fund基金的羅瑞?凱斯認(rèn)為,正在邁入老年階段的嬰兒潮一代對(duì)Teleflex設(shè)備有著長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)需求。公司股票并不便宜,其遠(yuǎn)期市盈率接近30倍,但分析師認(rèn)為Teleflex 2021年的營(yíng)收增幅將達(dá)到13.5%。
險(xiǎn)企巨頭聯(lián)合健康集團(tuán)順利地挺過了疫情的沖擊。
在疫情初期,其利潤(rùn)因擇期手術(shù)的下降甚至有所上升,使得公司能夠向客戶提供一些返利。然而,Nuveen的塞拉?馬利克將選舉后風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的缺失稱之為險(xiǎn)企“最大的利好因素”:有鑒于下一屆國(guó)會(huì)有望出現(xiàn)勢(shì)均力敵的顯著分歧,“全民醫(yī)保”計(jì)劃很難實(shí)現(xiàn)。
馬利克預(yù)計(jì)聯(lián)合健康將以最快的速度在5年內(nèi)擴(kuò)大其在“醫(yī)保優(yōu)勢(shì)計(jì)劃”領(lǐng)域的印記,其Optum業(yè)務(wù)也將攬獲更多的會(huì)員(其中包括醫(yī)保儲(chǔ)蓄賬戶和支付處理)。公司股票的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為22倍,與標(biāo)普500的平均水平相當(dāng),而且馬利克認(rèn)為,隨著聯(lián)合健康的業(yè)務(wù)模式回歸常態(tài),以及其股價(jià)的攀升,公司可能會(huì)消除這一鴻溝。
推薦股票
Stryker (SYK)
Teleflex (TFX)
聯(lián)合健康集團(tuán)(UNH)
消費(fèi)股
封鎖過后,一些零售商和直播節(jié)目將東山再起。
疫情迫使全國(guó)店面關(guān)閉之后,零售向電商轉(zhuǎn)變的漫長(zhǎng)過程得以加速推進(jìn)。然而,如果疫苗到來驅(qū)使更多的人回到實(shí)體店,那些主營(yíng)實(shí)體店的公司可能會(huì)為投資者帶來不俗的回報(bào)。對(duì)于折扣零售商來說更是如此,因?yàn)樗麄円恢蹦軌蛴谩皩殹斌w驗(yàn)以及在動(dòng)蕩經(jīng)濟(jì)中備受歡迎的低價(jià)策略來取悅客戶。
Parnassus的凱斯便是Burlington Stores的一名粉絲,這是美國(guó)僅次于Ross Stores和TJX的第三大折扣零售商。Burlington眾多店面位于獨(dú)立的大樓而不是大型商場(chǎng)中,比實(shí)體店零售商受疫情沖擊要小,因此可以較早重新開業(yè)。新首席執(zhí)行官邁克·歐·薩利文于2019年從Ross來到了公司,正在投資用于供應(yīng)鏈管理的科技,以及有助于Burlington繼續(xù)改善其運(yùn)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)率的分析工具。
在當(dāng)前這個(gè)時(shí)代,人們更喜歡外出而不是待在家中,這可能對(duì)于服飾巨頭VF來說是一個(gè)好消息,該公司旗下資產(chǎn)組合公司包括戶外品牌Vans,北臉和添柏嵐。
凱斯稱,投資電商獲得了回報(bào),公司銷售額在最近幾個(gè)季度有所增長(zhǎng),而且公司在近些年剝離了像諾帝卡和Reef這樣的老品牌以精簡(jiǎn)其產(chǎn)品線。VF最近以21億美元收購(gòu)備受青少年追捧的大熱街頭服飾品牌Supreme,凱斯認(rèn)為該品牌有望成為公司增長(zhǎng)的一個(gè)潛在加速引擎。
彌補(bǔ)錯(cuò)過的時(shí)間
分析師預(yù)計(jì),隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)快速增長(zhǎng),2021年幾乎各行各業(yè)普遍都會(huì)出現(xiàn)利潤(rùn)的大幅增長(zhǎng)。
高盛資產(chǎn)管理選股業(yè)務(wù)聯(lián)席負(fù)責(zé)人凱蒂·科克認(rèn)為,在更加年輕的消費(fèi)群體中,像音樂會(huì)和旅游這類體驗(yàn)要比零售更為重要,而且一旦疫苗出現(xiàn)之后,專業(yè)從事此類體驗(yàn)的企業(yè)可能會(huì)因?yàn)槊驮龅男枨蠖畈l(fā)展。
這對(duì)于Live Nation來說可謂是天大的好消息,該公司是音樂會(huì)和相關(guān)活動(dòng)的巨頭企業(yè),旗下子公司包括Ticketmaster等。Live Nation的營(yíng)收在過去12個(gè)月中下滑了近60%,而且由于現(xiàn)場(chǎng)活動(dòng)不知何時(shí)才能全面恢復(fù),華爾街預(yù)計(jì)公司的營(yíng)收在2021年依然會(huì)在低位徘徊。然而科克指出,公司所擁有的“資產(chǎn)負(fù)債實(shí)力能夠讓公司度過繼續(xù)拖延的經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)停。”對(duì)于因疫情而關(guān)閉的活動(dòng)中,超過80%的Live Nation的客戶選擇持有其門票,而不是退款。對(duì)于科克來說,“這個(gè)有力的數(shù)據(jù)點(diǎn)證明,人們對(duì)這類活動(dòng)異常喜愛?!?/p>
推薦股票
Burlington Stores (BURL)
VF Corp. (VFC)
Live Nation (LYV)
銀行股
疫情趕走了投資者,但 “四大”中的很多銀行依然斬獲了穩(wěn)定的利潤(rùn)。
就經(jīng)濟(jì)健康度的形象代言人而言,沒有哪一組企業(yè)能夠比四大金融巨頭——摩根大通、美國(guó)銀行、富國(guó)銀行和花旗集團(tuán)——更適合這一角色。到目前為止,市場(chǎng)回歸基本上都與四大無緣。自1月1日以來,盡管標(biāo)普增長(zhǎng)了10%,但四大平均下跌了22%。然而,這一現(xiàn)象也讓其股票變得異常便宜,一旦其利潤(rùn)反彈,投資者可能會(huì)收獲巨大的回報(bào)。
這里存在多個(gè)對(duì)銀行有利的因素。不斷改善的經(jīng)濟(jì)將逐漸抬升利率,推高“凈利息收益”,也就是銀行家庭和信用貸款利息與存款利息之差。四大在接管受疫情沖擊的貸款之后依然公布了穩(wěn)定的營(yíng)收。這一點(diǎn)部分歸功于一項(xiàng)新會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則的實(shí)施,從1月到4月,四大共計(jì)為不良信貸認(rèn)列了620億美元的撥備,覆蓋了其預(yù)計(jì)的新冠疫情引發(fā)的所有損失。
專業(yè)研究公司Portales Partners負(fù)責(zé)人查爾斯·皮博迪稱,好消息在于:“除非美國(guó)再次經(jīng)歷深度蕭條,虧損應(yīng)該維持在一個(gè)大幅降低的水平?!?/p>
資金不足
銀行股已經(jīng)落后于大盤,但隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)向常態(tài)邁進(jìn),銀行收益將出現(xiàn)大幅躍升。
美國(guó)銀行從上行經(jīng)濟(jì)中獲益的可能性尤為突出,因?yàn)楣靖嗟貙W⒂谙M(fèi)者而不是投行或貿(mào)易。
在第三季度,不斷下滑的利率讓美國(guó)銀行的凈利息收益減少了21億美元,降幅達(dá)到了17%,但該銀行依然報(bào)出了49億美元的利潤(rùn)。該行認(rèn)為,10年期國(guó)債收益率每上漲一個(gè)百分點(diǎn),其稅前收益就會(huì)增長(zhǎng)33.4億美元。
皮博迪認(rèn)為,美國(guó)銀行側(cè)重消費(fèi)者的業(yè)務(wù)組合將成為經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)的超級(jí)受益者。他說,受信用卡和抵押貸款需求的刺激,“此次反彈更多的是在于消費(fèi)而不是華爾街金融業(yè)”。美國(guó)銀行相對(duì)于2019年利潤(rùn)的市盈率僅有8,其股價(jià)比摩根大通還便宜。
富國(guó)銀行倒是有一定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。銀行一直受累于與監(jiān)管方打擊其不道德銷售行為有關(guān)的成本,而且美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)對(duì)其業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)實(shí)施了嚴(yán)格的限令。富國(guó)銀行的股價(jià)從其2018年的峰值水平下跌了60%。
然而,首席執(zhí)行官查爾斯?斯卡夫在削減成本上一直頗有建樹。與美國(guó)銀行一樣,富國(guó)銀行主營(yíng)消費(fèi)業(yè)務(wù),去年發(fā)放的抵押貸款數(shù)額在四大中居于首位。有鑒于于此,它有望成為利率上升期間的大贏家。
推薦股票
美國(guó)銀行 (BAC)
富國(guó)銀行 (WFC)
航空與航天
憂心忡忡的乘客與限飛令也無法阻止其股價(jià)的上漲。
11月振奮人心的疫苗數(shù)據(jù)讓航空公司股價(jià)從低點(diǎn)一飛沖天,然而投資者擔(dān)心其股價(jià)在近期內(nèi)難以企及新高。盡管注射了疫苗的商務(wù)差旅人士會(huì)更放心地搭乘航班,但只要能夠通過Zoom溝通,他們依然不大愿意乘飛機(jī)參加工作會(huì)議。同時(shí),飛機(jī)在沒有滿客的情況下執(zhí)飛也沒有利潤(rùn)可言。
那些希望從航空旅行恢復(fù)中大賺一筆的投資者,轉(zhuǎn)而進(jìn)一步將目光投向了供應(yīng)鏈,也就是那些制造和維修飛機(jī)零部件的公司。
Schroders的投資策略師比爾?卡拉漢說:“航空公司省錢的方式有很多種,但它們無法在飛機(jī)維修方面省錢?!敝灰w機(jī)起飛之后,零部件就會(huì)出現(xiàn)磨損,維修要比購(gòu)買全新的飛機(jī)便宜的多,而且航空公司現(xiàn)在也沒錢購(gòu)買新飛機(jī)。
卡拉漢在談到像克利夫蘭TransDigm以及康涅狄格州斯坦福德的Hexcel這類制造商時(shí)說,“他們對(duì)波音的痛苦可謂是感同身受?!盩ransDigm生產(chǎn)從駕駛艙到廁所等各類飛機(jī)部件,而Hexcel則專業(yè)生產(chǎn)飛機(jī)碳纖維。盡管這兩家公司股價(jià)最近均出現(xiàn)了飆升,但依然遠(yuǎn)低于其疫情前的水平。Hexcel的股價(jià)較其2019年的峰值下跌了近40%。
持有規(guī)律
隨著疫情病例的再次激增,美國(guó)航空旅行在經(jīng)歷了夏秋兩季的部分恢復(fù)之后趨于平穩(wěn)。
卡拉漢建議,對(duì)于那些愿意盡早押注航空公司股票的投資者來說,不妨考慮那些專注于美國(guó)市場(chǎng)的企業(yè):“國(guó)際差旅受到影響的期限將長(zhǎng)于本土差旅”。相對(duì)于其他美國(guó)大型航空公司,專注于美國(guó)本土的西南航空在疫情期間較為順利地通過了考驗(yàn),而且利用了疫情導(dǎo)致的差旅蕭條,于2021年中期之前在其航線中新增了10個(gè)機(jī)場(chǎng)。
Commonwealth Financial Network資產(chǎn)組合管理負(fù)責(zé)人皮特?埃塞爾認(rèn)為,從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來看,捷藍(lán)航空在卓越客戶體驗(yàn)方面的聲譽(yù)將為其提供相對(duì)于傳統(tǒng)航空公司的優(yōu)勢(shì),而且會(huì)在疫情之后持續(xù)很長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間。
不過買家需要注意的是:即便最有實(shí)力的航空公司在明年也將面臨眾多的湍流。
推薦股票
TransDigm (TDG)
Hexcel (HXL)
西南航空 (LUV)
捷藍(lán)航空 (JBLU)
國(guó)際股票
將目光投向海外的投資者尋找的是實(shí)力公司的特價(jià)股。
在新冠危機(jī)期間,美國(guó)公司股價(jià)高于國(guó)際公司股價(jià),這得益于美國(guó)本土優(yōu)勢(shì):這些公司得到了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)刺激計(jì)劃的支撐,同時(shí)也受益于美元作為全球儲(chǔ)備貨幣的地位。
高盛的科克說,當(dāng)疫情最終消散時(shí),“我認(rèn)為美股在市場(chǎng)上一枝獨(dú)秀的出色表現(xiàn)將不復(fù)往昔”,因?yàn)橥顿Y者對(duì)非美國(guó)企業(yè)的信心將得到提升。另一個(gè)令投資者對(duì)亞洲和歐洲股票信心大增的因素在于:在貿(mào)易問題上,拜登政府將不再像其前任那樣肆意為之。
Nuveen的馬利克認(rèn)為有一只股票將持續(xù)上揚(yáng),它就是全球最大的代工芯片生產(chǎn)商臺(tái)積電。該公司制作的芯片對(duì)于全球5G網(wǎng)絡(luò)的構(gòu)建至關(guān)重要。
馬利克稱,半導(dǎo)體巨頭英特爾最近遭遇的生產(chǎn)問題“必然將間接造福臺(tái)積電,如果不是直接的話”,因?yàn)橛⑻貭栍锌赡軐⒏嘧杂行酒瑯I(yè)務(wù)外包給臺(tái)積電。然而,該公司的股價(jià)依然停留在合理區(qū)間,其遠(yuǎn)期市盈率約為23倍。
詹森投資管理公司的斯科恩斯騰看好跨國(guó)美容和食品巨頭聯(lián)合利華,該公司當(dāng)前正在合并其倫敦總部的業(yè)務(wù)。聯(lián)合利華旗下品牌包括多芬香皂、立頓茶葉、Breyers冰淇淋和Vaseline,遠(yuǎn)銷190個(gè)國(guó)家,其中國(guó)和北美業(yè)務(wù)最近成為了亮點(diǎn)。由于疫情期間消費(fèi)者的大量采購(gòu),聯(lián)合利華與其他消費(fèi)品巨頭一樣過得十分坦然。如果消費(fèi)者成為其忠實(shí)客戶,其股價(jià)還有上升空間,其遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為溫和的21倍,而美國(guó)消費(fèi)必需品行業(yè)平均市盈率水平接近26倍。
聯(lián)合利華的一些產(chǎn)品可能會(huì)通過加拿大國(guó)家鐵路送到客戶手中,這是一條貨運(yùn)專用鐵路,連接著美國(guó)和加拿大,并縱貫亞特蘭大、太平洋和墨西哥灣的主要港口。
加拿大國(guó)家鐵路公司運(yùn)輸?shù)呢浳锓N類十分廣泛,包括原油、金屬、礦物和木材產(chǎn)品,而且其消費(fèi)品運(yùn)輸業(yè)務(wù)隨著新冠疫情危機(jī)的好轉(zhuǎn)出現(xiàn)了尤為明顯的恢復(fù)。加拿大國(guó)家鐵路一直在疫情期間致力于改善其鐵路網(wǎng)絡(luò)。
斯科恩斯騰稱,這些投資的效率以及相對(duì)較低的燃油價(jià)格,將讓加拿大國(guó)家鐵路在其他經(jīng)濟(jì)型列車開始再次提速時(shí)擁有更好的表現(xiàn)。
股票推薦
臺(tái)積電(TSM)
聯(lián)合利華(UL)
加拿大國(guó)家鐵路(CNI)
《財(cái)富》雜志的選股之道:謹(jǐn)慎行事的時(shí)代
盡管沒有人能夠預(yù)測(cè)2020年的混亂局面,但《財(cái)富》雜志作者雷?瑪莎耶吉和安妮?斯瑞德斯確實(shí)曾預(yù)測(cè)2020年將是一個(gè)充滿了增長(zhǎng)不確定性和政治沖突的年份。他們?cè)凇包S燈資產(chǎn)組合中”選擇的27只股票和交易所基金看重的是謹(jǐn)慎、有韌勁的公司,這些股票和基金在接下來一年中的表現(xiàn)超過了標(biāo)普500,其涵蓋派息的中值回報(bào)率達(dá)到了20.6%,而大盤為19.5%。以下是其中的一些亮點(diǎn)。
電氣化
不管你對(duì)埃隆?馬斯克有什么看法,不可否認(rèn),特斯拉在2020年可謂是炙手可熱。這家電動(dòng)汽車制造商解決了其產(chǎn)能問題,為了盈利而努力打拼,并在標(biāo)普500中占據(jù)了一席之地。自我們選擇之后,股票回報(bào)率達(dá)到了505%,也讓其成為了到目前為止表現(xiàn)最好的股票。相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的另一位勝者則屬于日本電動(dòng)汽車電機(jī)制造商N(yùn)idec(增長(zhǎng)了51%)。
安全購(gòu)物
疫情給零售商帶來了巨大的壓力,但也為那些及時(shí)調(diào)整的零售商帶來了回報(bào)。塔吉特增添了人手,保證了開業(yè)店面的干凈整潔,并借此贏得了本屬于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的市場(chǎng)份額。與此同時(shí),居家辦公潮則提振了家得寶的業(yè)績(jī)。疫情期間,人們對(duì)居住房屋進(jìn)行翻修改造,并購(gòu)買了更昂貴家居用品,以充分打造居家辦公好環(huán)境。
用芯片換錢
我們所選的科技股包括Alphabet和微軟,這兩家在過去幾年一直都順風(fēng)順?biāo)H欢?,我們表現(xiàn)最優(yōu)異的科技股則來自于一家鮮為人知的芯片企業(yè)。Synopsys(其軟件得到了半導(dǎo)體設(shè)計(jì)專家的采用)的股票和荷蘭芯片元件制造商阿斯麥的回報(bào)率分別達(dá)到了63%和61%。隨著全球數(shù)字硬件需求的增長(zhǎng),每一只股票(連同其行業(yè))都出現(xiàn)了大幅上揚(yáng)。
無法全勝
我們的資產(chǎn)組合涵蓋五只“孤注一擲”的股票,也就是那些有著較高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的公司。特斯拉和Nidec大獲成功。由于奢侈品牌受到了新冠疫情的毀滅性打擊,英國(guó)零售商博柏利(下滑19%)失敗了。過去丑聞的敗露給富國(guó)銀行造成巨大沖擊(下滑52%),不過我們的團(tuán)隊(duì)今年認(rèn)為,這家備受摧殘的銀行即將迎來更好的發(fā)展時(shí)期。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
本文的另一個(gè)版本刊登于《財(cái)富》雜志2020年12月/2021年1月刊,標(biāo)題為《2021年股票選擇:投資宏大的重建事業(yè)》
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
Among the many crises that have kept Americans awake at night in 2020, one that looms large is the idea of a “K-shaped recovery” from COVID-19. That’s the premise, backed by a growing body of evidence, that a year of lockdowns, isolation, and uncertainty have widened the wealth gap between America’s work-from-home managerial classes and its paycheck-to-paycheck frontline workers—with the two groups’ well-being moving in opposite directions like the arms of a “K.”
The stock market, meanwhile, has undergone its own K-shaped recovery, albeit one with less dire consequences. Borne up by events that made us more dependent than ever on technology, from e-commerce to teleconferencing, the five Big Tech stocks lumped under the awkward acronym FAAMG—Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google—have returned 52.5% year to date, compared with just 6.3% for the other 495 members of the S&P 500. Together, they now have a market cap of $7.2 trillion. If you were keeping your entire portfolio in a typical, “cap-weighted” S&P 500 ETF, 23% of your assets would now be parked in those five stocks alone.
The weeks before Thanksgiving brought promising news on two COVID vaccines, with more likely to come. Though a very difficult winter looms, the odds are good that these lifesavers will help the global economy turn the corner on the pandemic in 2021—and, with luck, trigger a recovery that’s strong enough, and broad enough, to KO both those K-shapes.
Where stocks are concerned, that ray of hope is leading pros to reconsider where they’ll earn the best returns. In the industries most beaten down by the pandemic, the thinking goes, companies’ shares should have more room to snap upward as their earnings recover. “It’s the materials stocks, the consumer discretionary, the financials, industrials that will come roaring out” as the economy normalizes, says Sarah Ketterer, CEO of Causeway Capital. Many managers believe that non-U.S. stocks, which sank faster than U.S. equities as the pandemic settled in, are also poised to surge. Whatever happens, FAAMG won’t be the only game in town, says Saira Malik, head of global equities at Nuveen: “I don’t think we’re going to end 2021 saying, ‘Five growth stocks were all you had to own.’?”
Betting on these sectors doesn’t mean bailing out of tech stocks. Technology’s central role in driving economic growth is undeniable. That said, analysts expect tech earnings to rise at a slower rate than earnings for the S&P 500 as a whole in 2021. That’s another sign that stocks in other industries could enjoy a prolonged spell in the sunshine as the global economy gets healthier. With that in mind, we sought out stocks in six categories that are poised to deliver big results as the world rebuilds.
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Energy and infrastructure
As the U.S. builds new economic backbones, these stocks will benefit.
A new administration typically raises investor hopes of fresh spending on infrastructure—upgrades that both sides of the aisle tend to support. President-elect Joe Biden campaigned on two particularly timely infrastructure themes: a climate plan that calls for $2 trillion in federal investment in “sustainable infrastructure,” and a $20 billion proposal to invest in rural broadband connectivity. Yet even if funding stalls in a gridlocked Congress, there’s reason to bet on companies that build these backbones of the future economy.
Many investors are setting their sights on renewable sources of electricity. While wind and solar account for only about 7% of world electricity generation today, the International Energy Agency expects that figure could rise to 40% by 2040. “We’re just in the very early stages of a multi-decade growth opportunity within renewables,” says Josh Duitz, a senior portfolio manager helping to oversee the Aberdeen Standard Global Infrastructure Income Fund. He’s a fan of utilities known as “yieldcos” for their high dividends, including U.K.-based Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure (with a 5% dividend) and Clearway Energy (yielding 4.6%), which own and operate solar-panel installations and wind turbines across the U.S. and abroad. Duitz also likes NextEra Energy, the biggest renewable-energy utility in the U.S. NextEra plans to invest $1 billion next year in the emerging frontier of battery storage. That innovation is key to taking renewable energy mainstream, enabling it to be used even after the sun sets or the wind dies down.
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The Footprints of Five Giants...
Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google (the so-called FAAMG stocks) now account for almost a quarter of the value of the S&P 500.
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Mobile data consumption was already growing more than 30% a year in the U.S. before the pandemic; with the reliance on teleconferencing for work and for school, we’re using even more. That means telecom companies will need to continue fleshing out their 5G networks for years to come—in part by putting more antennae on cell towers. “The physics of it is, the more bandwidth you require, the shorter the distance you need to be to a tower,” explains Nick Langley, senior portfolio manager at ClearBridge Investments. That’s good news for real estate investment trusts like Crown Castle and American Tower, which Langley expects will grow earnings at a high single-digit rate for as much as a decade. Duitz recommends Spain’s Cellnex, which is also growing through acquisitions as more European cell phone companies shed their towers to pure-play operators.
PICKS
Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure (AY)
Clearway Energy (CWEN)
NextEra Energy (NEE)
Crown Castle (CCI)
American Tower (AMT)
Cellnex (CLNX)
*****
Health care stocks
Waiting for COVID to release its grip on the health care system.
The pandemic is a health care crisis that has been brutal on some health care companies. Elective procedures, a big profit-generator for device makers and hospitals, slowed or stopped altogether, while older people in particular put off medical care of all kinds to avoid exposure to the coronavirus. But while COVID-related challenges remain, encouraging progress on potential vaccines has led some investors to double down on companies that will benefit from a return to normal.
Eric Schoenstein, a managing director and portfolio manager at Jensen Investment Management, likes Stryker, a top producer of orthopedic implants, joint replacements, and other technology that caters to the needs of an aging population. Stryker has what Schoenstein calls a “first-mover advantage” with its robotics-assisted surgical platform, which is used in hip and knee replacements. Roughly half of Stryker’s business can be categorized as “elective procedures,” but as those procedures continue to come back, analyst estimates project its revenues growing more than 13% in 2021. The stock, meanwhile, trades at valuations slightly below the sector average.
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Made Bigger by a Boom Year
As the pandemic increased our dependence on telework, e-commerce, and home entertainment, the FAAMG stocks soared.
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The full-fledged return of elective surgeries will also benefit Teleflex, whose products include many used in vascular and urology procedures and the treatment of prostate disease. Lori Keith, who manages the Parnassus Mid Cap Fund, sees long-term demand for Teleflex’s equipment as baby boomers age. The stock isn’t cheap, at nearly 30 times estimated forward earnings, but analysts think Teleflex could grow revenues by 13.5% in 2021.
Giant insurer UnitedHealth Group has navigated the pandemic well; its profits even rose early on owing to the decline in elective procedures, leading it to pay some rebates to customers. But Saira Malik of Nuveen calls the absence of post-election risks the “biggest positive” for the insurer: With the next Congress expected to be evenly and sharply divided, Medicare for All is not to be. Malik expects UnitedHealth to expand its footprint in Medicare Advantage plans “at the fastest rate in five years” and to increase memberships in its Optum business (which includes health savings accounts and payment processing). The stock’s forward P/E, at 22 times estimated earnings, trails the S&P 500 average, and Malik believes UnitedHealth could close that gap “as the company’s business model returns to normal” and its shares climb.
PICKS
Stryker (SYK)
Teleflex (TFX)
UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
*****
Consumer stocks
There’s life after lockdown for some retailers and for live events.
Retail’s long shift to e-commerce accelerated even faster as the pandemic shuttered stores nationwide. But if the eventual arrival of a vaccine coaxes still more people back into in-person shopping, companies that rely on physical stores could reward investors nicely. That’s particularly true of discount retailers, which have been able to please customers with a “treasure-hunting” experience along with lower prices that are welcome in a shaky economy. Parnassus’s Keith is a fan of Burlington Stores, the third-largest off-price retailer in the country after Ross Stores and TJX. Burlington was hit less hard than some brick-and-mortar retailers because many of its stores are in stand-alone locations, not malls, and were able to reopen early. And new CEO Michael O’Sullivan, who came to the company in 2019 from Ross, is making investments in tech for supply-chain management and analytics that should help Burlington continue to improve its operating margins.
An era in which people prefer outside to inside could be a boon for apparel titan VF, whose portfolio includes outdoorsy brands like Vans, The North Face, and Timberland. Investments in e-commerce have paid off with sales increases in recent quarters, Keith says, and the company has shed older brands like Nautica and Reef in recent years to streamline its offerings. Keith also believes VF’s recent $2.1 billion acquisition of youth-favorite streetwear brand Supreme is a potential accelerant for the company’s growth.
Making Up for Lost Time
Analysts expect hefty profit growth almost across the board in 2021, as the economy gets back up to speed.
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Katie Koch, cohead of fundamental equity at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, believes that among younger consumers, experiences like concerts and travel matter more than retail therapy—and once a vaccine arrives, businesses that specialize in such experiences could boom because of pent-up demand. That would be music to the ears of Live Nation, the concert and event behemoth that owns the likes of Ticketmaster. Live Nation’s revenues are down nearly 60% in the past 12 months, and with no clarity on when live events might get the all-clear, Wall Street expects earnings to stay depressed in 2021. But Koch says the company has the “balance sheet strength to make it through a continued, protracted shutdown.” For events canceled because of the pandemic, over 80% of Live Nation’s customers opted to hold on to their tickets instead of getting a refund. To Koch, “that’s just a great data point that people are committed.”
PICKS
Burlington Stores (BURL)
VF Corp. (VFC)
Live Nation (LYV)
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Bank stocks
The pandemic chased investors away, but profits have stayed steady for many of the “Big Four.”
No group of companies is a better proxy for the health of the economy than the four giants of financial services: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. So far, the market’s comeback has mainly bypassed the Big Four. Since Jan. 1, while the S&P has risen 10%, they have lost an average of 22%. But that has left their stocks so cheap that if their profits rebound, investors could pocket substantial returns.
Several factors are trending in banks’ favor. A strengthening economy should gradually lift rates, boosting “net interest income”—the spread between what banks charge on home and credit card loans and what they pay in interest on deposits. And the Big Four have been posting steady earnings even after taking charges for pandemic-struck loans. Owing in part to a new accounting rule, from January to September, the Big Four booked $62 billion in provisions for bad credit, covering all the COVID-induced losses they’re expecting. The good news: “Unless the U.S. goes into another steep recession, losses should remain at much reduced levels,” says Charles Peabody, chief of boutique research firm Portales Partners.
*****
Underfunded
Bank stocks have lagged the broader market, but bank earnings should jump as the economy moves closer to normalcy.
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Bank of America is particularly likely to gain from a rising economy, because it’s focused more on the consumer than on investment banking or trading. In the third quarter, falling rates cut BofA’s net interest income by $2.1 billion, or 17%—but the bank still posted $4.9 billion in profit. It reckons that every one-point rise in the 10-year Treasury yield swells its pretax earnings by $3.34 billion. Peabody thinks BofA’s consumer-heavy mix is super-well positioned for the recovery. “This rebound is more about Main Street than Wall Street,” he says, driven by demand for credit cards and mortgages. And at a P/E of just under 8 on 2019 profits, BofA is cheaper than JPMorgan.
Wells Fargo is a chancier bet. The bank has been suffering from costs associated with a regulatory crackdown over its unethical sales practices, and the Fed has imposed strict limits on its growth. Wells’ shares have fallen 60% from their 2018 peak. But CEO Charles Scharf has had success in chopping expenses. And like BofA, Wells is mostly a consumer franchise—it wrote the most mortgages last year among the Big Four. That fact should help it benefit greatly from rising rates.
PICKS
Bank of America(BAC)
Wells Fargo (WFC)
*****
Airlines and aerospace
Wary passengers and grounded flights won’t stop these stocks from climbing.
Promising vaccine data in November sent airline stocks soaring off their lows, but investors caution that shares may struggle to ascend much higher anytime soon. Though business travelers vaccinated against COVID-19 may be more comfortable flying, they may still be less inclined to fly to work meetings when they could Zoom instead. And planes aren’t profitable to fly unless they’re full.
Instead, investors hoping to reap returns from a recovery in air travel are looking further up the supply chain, at companies that make and repair airplane components. “There’s lots of ways that airlines can save money, but plane maintenance is not really one of them,” says Bill Callahan, investment strategist at Schroders. As long as planes are taking off, their parts are wearing out—and fixing them is a lot cheaper than buying a brand-new aircraft, which airlines can’t afford at the moment. “Boeing’s pain is their gain,” Callahan says of manufacturers like Cleveland-based TransDigm, which makes aircraft components from the cockpit to the lavatories, and Hexcel, based in Stamford, Conn., which specializes in carbon fiber for planes. While both companies’ shares have surged recently, they’re still far from their pre-pandemic highs; Hexcel trades nearly 40% below its 2019 peak.
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Holding Pattern
A partial recovery in U.S. air travel in the summer and fall leveled off as coronavirus cases surged again.
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For those who are willing to bet early on airline stocks, consider those with businesses focused on the U.S.: “International travel is going to be impacted for longer than domestic travel,” notes Callahan. Domestic-focused Southwest Airlines has ridden out the crisis more smoothly than the other major U.S. carriers and has taken advantage of pandemic-induced travel slack to add 10 new airports to its routes by mid-2021. Peter Essele, head of portfolio management for Commonwealth Financial Network, believes JetBlue’s reputation for superior customer experience will give it an edge in the long term over more traditional carriers, well beyond the pandemic. Buyer beware, however: Even the strongest airlines will face a lot of turbulence next year.
PICKS
TransDigm (TDG)
Hexcel (HXL)
Southwest Airlines (LUV)
JetBlue(JBLU)
International stocks
Investors looking abroad are finding strong companies at bargain prices.
During the COVID crisis, American stocks have traded at a premium to international stocks because they were, well, American: Their businesses were supported by stimulus spending from the Fed and by the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency. When the pandemic finally eases, says Goldman’s Koch, “I don’t think the U.S. will have the same hegemony of market outperformance” as investors grow more confident in non-U.S. names. Another confidence-booster for Asian and European stocks: A Biden administration will be more predictable than its predecessor on trade issues.
One stock that Nuveen’s Malik believes will continue its upward trajectory is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chipmaker. The company makes chips that are central to the buildout of 5G worldwide. And semiconductor titan Intel’s recent manufacturing woes are “certainly going to indirectly, if not directly, benefit TSMC,” Malik argues, as Intel may subcontract more of its own chips to TSMC. But the stock still comes at a reasonable price tag, trading at around 23 times forward earnings.
Jensen’s Schoenstein favors Unilever, the multinational beauty and food giant that’s currently consolidating its headquarters in London. Unilever’s brands, which include Dove soap, Lipton tea, Breyers ice cream, and Vaseline, are sold in 190 countries, and its China and North America businesses have been recent bright spots. Like other consumer goods behemoths, Unilever held up well as shoppers filled their pantries during the pandemic. If consumers stay loyal, its stock could have room to run, since it trades at a modest 21 times forward earnings, compared with the U.S. consumer staples average of nearly 26.
Some of those Unilever products may well reach customers via Canadian National Railway, a freight-only railroad whose lines run through the U.S. and Canada and link major ports on the Atlantic, the Pacific, and the Gulf of Mexico. CNR transports a diversified mix of oil, metals, minerals, and forest products, and its consumer goods shipping business saw a particularly sharp recovery as the COVID crisis played out. CNR continued making improvements to its rail network during the pandemic. Schoenstein says that efficiencies from those investments, plus relatively low fuel prices, should position CNR to do even better once other economic locomotives start gaining speed again.
PICKS
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM)
Unilever (UL)
Canadian National Railway (CNI)
How Fortune did: When it pays to be cautious
While no one could have predicted the insanity of 2020, Fortune writers Rey Mashayekhi and Anne Sraders did anticipate a year of iffy growth and political tension. The 27 stocks and ETFs they picked in “The Yellow-Light Portfolio” put an emphasis on prudent, resilient companies—and it beat the S&P 500 over the ensuing year, with median returns of 20.6%, including dividends, to the market's 19.5%. Here are some highlights.
Electrified
Whatever you think of Elon Musk, there’s no denying Tesla had a torrid 2020. The electric-vehicle maker ironed out its production kinks, fought its way to profitability, and earned a spot in the S&P 500. The stock has returned 505% since we picked it, making it by far our best performer. Another winning pick in a related field: Nidec (up 51%), a Japanese maker of EV motors.
Safe shopping
The pandemic has put retailers under tremendous strain but rewarded those that adapted nimbly. Target staffed up to keep its stores open and clean, and stole market share from rivals; it has returned 53% since last year. The work-from-home trend, meanwhile, boosted Home Depot, as homeowners renovated, repaired, and traded up to make the best of their round-the-clock domestic surroundings.
Cash our chips
Our tech picks included Alphabet and Microsoft, which had great years. But our top tech performers were little-known chip specialists. Shares in Synopsys, whose software is used by semiconductor-design wizards, and Dutch chip-component maker ASML returned 63% and 61%, respectively. Each stock soared (along with their industry) as global demand for digital hardware increased.
Can't win 'em all
Our portfolio included five “bold bet” picks, companies with higher-risk profiles. Tesla and Nidec paid off. British retailer Burberry (down 19%) did not, as luxury brands got crushed by COVID. The fallout from past scandals, meanwhile, clobbered Wells Fargo (down 52%), though our team is betting this year that better times are coming for the battered bank.
A version of this article appears in the December 2020/January 2021 issue of Fortune with the headline, "Stocks for 2021: Invest in the big rebuild."